Understanding Blackjack Pushes: A Complete Guide
What is a push in blackjack? It’s a question a lot of newbies to the game might have, and for those who want to learn the ropes quickly to improve their gameplay and chances of winning.
If you want to know more about it, we’ve put together a definitive guide so that you can understand every aspect of it and what (if anything) you can do to improve your chances when playing Blackjack.
Ready to get to grips with the this casino game and find out all you need to know about this subject? Let’s begin.
Understanding What a Push Means in Blackjack
So, what does push mean in Blackjack, and why does it matter so much for players?
When you’re playing Blackjack, a push is what happens when there’s a tie between the player and the dealer. It occurs when both hands have the same final point total without either side busting – that’s to say, scoring over 21.
It matters for players for all of these reasons:
- It’ll impact your strategy: It won’t change your basic strategy, as such, but you’ll have to play more aggressively to win, as that’s what you’re aiming to do – not just tie (and definitely not lose)!
- It’ll impact your finances: OK, stop for a minute and think about playing a 100-hand game. It’s estimated that about 8.5 % of all hands end in a push. So ultimately, there’s potential for 8-9 hands to deplete your funds. A small but not insubstantial loss.
- It’ll impact your odds: In effect, a push is a neutral event that pauses the odds of the game. As a player, the probability of you winning is separate from your probability of losing. If you tie, it won’t count as a loss, but it can dilute your results…
Do Side Bets and Split Hands Push?
In simple terms, split hands can push, but side bets never do. When you split, you create two independent hands. Each hand is evaluated separately against the dealer. One can push while the other wins or loses.
Let’s start with an example to show how it works.
The Scenario: Your first hand is a pair of 8s, and you split them into two separate hands, placing an equal bet on each. The Dealer’s hand finishes with a total of 18.
The Outcomes: First Hand (The Push): You draw a 10 and get a total of 18 – a tie. So this hand is a push, and your bet for the hand is returned.
Or:
Second Hand (The Win): You draw an Ace. In most splits, this gives a total of 19. This beats the dealer's 18, so it’s a win. You keep your bet and get a 1:1 payout.
Side Bets and Pushes
Side bets are optional wagers, and they’re made before any cards are dealt. They’re independent of your main hand, and because of this, they’ll offer much higher payouts simply because they’re harder to win.
Yes, they have big payouts, which means statistically, you’re more likely to lose money on them when compared to a main game, so it’s worth bearing that in mind before you start playing.
What’s a Blackjack push? This is a tie between you and the dealer. For instance, if you both end up with the same point total, as we outlined above, then nobody wins or loses, and your original bet is returned to you. It’s what we call a break-even hand.
Here are some good to know points:
- Most side bets are binary, so you’ll only ever win or lose, and there’s no push option. However, there’s an exception for Gratuity/Toke bets as they always follow the main hand fate, therefore, they can push.
- Side bets are increasingly common, but they rarely push.
Your Combined Results
What would different combinations of results look like? Let’s have a look at a few examples.
If you had one push and one win: You’re in profit.
If you had one push and one loss: You’d get a smaller loss than if you hadn’t split.
If you had one loss and one win: You’d have a mixed result with some of your side bet winnings covering your main bet loss.
Handling a Natural Blackjack Hand
A Natural Blackjack hand is usually considered to be the strongest hand in the game. It’s always a win (unless the dealer also has a natural). If you’re dealt a Natural and the dealer isn’t, it’s an automatic win for you.
What Makes a Natural Different?
A Natural Blackjack is an Ace plus a 10-value card in the first two cards dealt, and it’s not the same as drawing to 21 with multiple cards.
A Natural Blackjack is always stronger than a 21 made with three or more cards, but the rules don't treat all 21s the same.
The Payout Advantage
Got a Natural, and the dealer hits to 21 using three cards? You win! A natural Blackjack pays 3:2 (often called Time and a Half).
Split Aces and draw a 10? It counts as a standard 21 (not a natural) and pays 1:1.
When Naturals Push
In standard Blackjack, Naturals push when both the player and the dealer are dealt a Blackjack (an Ace and a 10-value card) as their first two cards.
Now, the thing is, the probability of this is often very low: ~0.23% (once in 429 hands). But it’s a frustrating feeling for players, who often feel they had the best possible hand dealt to them… yet got zero payout!
Why Does This Matter?
It matters for players for a number of reasons. First and foremost, naturals are usually automatic wins, unless of course, the dealer also has one!
Secondly, understanding how natural push mechanics work will help when an actual push occurs.
And finally, it also helps to set realistic expectations for the payout amounts you’re likely to get as a player. It keeps you in check, so you’re not getting ahead of yourself or overestimating what you might win.
Dealing with a Dealer's Hidden Ace
This occurs when a dealer's face-down card (the hole card) is an Ace. It can be a tipping point in the game, as it means the dealer is highly likely to have a brilliant hand (or a Natural Blackjack).
When the Dealer Shows an Ace
It’s their strongest starting position; from here, they’ve statistically got an 88.5% chance of reaching a final hand of 17–21. It can trigger a procedure that is set up to check for the dealer's strongest possible hand (a Natural Blackjack) before you even play yours.
This is because the dealer has a ~31% chance of holding a 10-value in the hole card (a natural). When the cards are dealt in this way, the dealer will ask you if you want to place an ‘Insurance’ bet. You’d place an additional bet of about 50% of your original wager that the dealer's face-down card is a 10, Jack, Queen, or King.
If they have a 10-value card, you lose your main bet but get paid 2:1 on the insurance.
If they don't have this, you lose the insurance bet, and the round continues normally.
This high probability is why the procedure exists, and a decent strategy says to turn down insurance every time, as it’s too high a risk.
The Even Money Offer
If you have a Natural Blackjack and the dealer shows an Ace, they may ask if you want Even Money. What happens is that before the dealer peeks at the hole card, they’ll offer you an
Immediate 1:1 payout (even money).
You can choose to accept it and get a guaranteed profit, albeit a smaller one. Or you can choose to decline it, and risk push, but you may get a potentially higher payout)
It is a crucial decision, and it will ultimately come down to the type of player you are. Therefore, it’s always best to choose wisely and consider taking a smaller amount of money and calling it a win. Gamble safely and responsibly, and know your limits in these situations.
The Most Devastating Push Scenario
When we’re considering what's a push in Blackjack, there are a few different scenarios to chat about, and we’ll take a look at them now.
Natural vs. Natural Push
This is perhaps the most unusual but also the most frustrating one-push scenario. The probability of it happening is 0.23%, that’s about once in 429 hands.
The reality of it is, as a player, you had the best possible hand, yet still won nothing! It’s one of the most frustrating, devastating, and soul-crushing things that can happen in a Blackjack game.
But it’s not the only scenario like this. There are some others to consider, too.
- There’s the classic push example where you drew multiple cards to reach 21, then the dealer matched.
- Another possibility is that you hit a 20 to reach 21, but the dealer also reaches 21.
- It might simply be that you built a strong hand through effort, and you still just got a push.
Moving Forward and Responsible Gaming
As tempting as it is to want to try to outfox a dealer or opponent, as a player, you should always be responsible in your approach to Blackjack games.
Don’t change your optimal strategy to avoid pushes. They’re part of normal game variance, and as such, you should accept this.
Use the knowledge we’re giving you in this guide for better decision-making and responsible game play and always play games within your financial means.
Push Frequency: Data and Analysis
What advice can we give you about push frequency and how to get the most from it? Here’s some guidance to follow.
How Often Do Pushes Actually Occur?
They’re not really that common. In real statistical terms, approximately 8.5% of Blackjack hands result in a push. So, in terms of gameplay, roughly 1 in 11-12 hands would result in a push.
Push Breakdown by Hand Total
| Total | Push Probability |
Thoughts |
| Both reach 21 |
2.3% |
Occurs when player and dealer reach 21 through drawing additional cards. |
| Both have 20 |
2.5% |
Most common push, as both players and dealers often land here with 10-value card combos. |
| Both have 19 |
1.5% |
Most common stopping point for most! |
| Both have 18 |
0.7% |
Most often happens when dealer hits an 18 and draws to match player’s standing 18. |
| Both have 17 |
0.5% |
Most common lowest push total. Dealers must stand on all 17s at most tables. |
| Natural vs. Natural |
0.23% (once in 429 hands) |
Rare; occurs if player’s first two cards and the dealer's first two cards are an Ace and a 10-value card. |
NB: These are approximate values only; the exact numbers will always depend on specific game rules. However, most pushes occur at 20-21, where players and dealers are most likely to match totals.
Factors That Change Push Probability
What might cause a change in the Push to occur? These are the most common factors:
- Number of decks: Fewer decks mean a slightly higher push rate
- Dealer Rules: Hits soft 17 vs. stands, and this affects push likelihood
- Player Strategy: Basic strategy vs. random play will usually produce different outcomes
- Individual Tendencies: Hitting more vs. standing more = changes push frequency, for instance, players who hit soft 17 will push less often than players who stand
Practical Application
Ultimately, a push is always better than a loss. After all, it’s a tie. Your bet will be returned with no profit (but no loss either). At the end of the day, that’s better than completely losing out.
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